A few months ago I blogged on why Bush would beat Kerry. Having watched a good deal of the Dems convention (why, I'm not sure), I pronounce myself wrong. Stephan Kinsella is right. So is Norman Singleton. Kerry's a monster--but so is Bush. And in an age when economic illiteracy and egalitarian socialism are running rampant, promising....uh, less socialism (as Bush has done for four years) is no way to win the hearts and minds of voters. The Cult of Bush's abandonment of any pretense to limited government--it's failure to offer a real alternative to the Nanny State--is the big chicken[hawk] coming home to roost.
Perusing the NRO reaction to Kerry, they're almost spitting mad that the Dems shrewdly kept a lid on the left-wing hot button issues of affirmative action, gay marriage, and abortion. But why bring these up? Bush hasn't shown any inclination to oppose them in any serious way. And besides, the war has become so all-consuming that the election may be something of a single-issue referendum on it's causes and conduct. Bush's credibility on the war has become such an albatross that Kerry sounds half-way plausible when stealing the Bush line of 2000 about "restoring honor and dignity to the White House." What's the GOP response--"Sticking to Bad Decisions No Matter What the Cost?"
My second thought on perusing the NRO Blog is astonishment at the degree of juvenile sniveling to which the publication which once employed the great Joe Sobran has been reduced.
p.s. Possible Wild-Card which could change the whole dynamic: the sudden death of a Supreme Court justice before November. The fight over the impending appointment might galvanize the portion of the GOP base which Bush has embarrassed into staying home on election day.